Egypt Institute Journal (Vol. 3 – Issue 11)
Introduction of Egypt Institute Journal (Vol. 3 – Issue 11)
Issue No.11 of the Egypt Institute Journal, published in July 2018, included a number of political, strategic, economic, intellectual and legal articles, as follows:
1- ‘Future Tracks of Political Transformations in the Middle East’, by Dr. Essam Abdel Shafy (Egypt)
The study addresses the most important likely tracks of political transformations ranging from hope to frustration, with focus on the controls, interests, directions, strategies, capabilities and real wills that govern the international interactions, not absurd delusions and wishes.
The study reviews four basic scenarios in which the region can move during the next seven years (2018-2025):
– The first scenario: achieving an Arab boom and victory of the popular revolutions,
– The second scenario: chaos and collapse,
– The third scenario: dismantling and restructuring, and
– The fourth scenario: what is more dangerous than division.
The study then addresses a number of proposals on how to deal with these scenarios and develop preliminary alternatives to manage the current challenges.
2- ‘Conspiracy and Interpretation of History: Between the Established Rules Approach and Liberal Interpretations’, by Dr. Saif Al-Din Abdel Fattah (Egypt)
The study suggests that the conspiracy theory is nothing but a “pretext” for providing justifications for our failure and misjudgment of the major events and developments that we face. For example, the establishment of the Zionist entity was due to lack of political and strategic competence among the leaders of neighboring Arab regimes rather than due to ‘conspiracy’.
The study of the ‘conspiracy theory’ and its connection to the interpretation of history comes within mutual accusations between different intellectual approaches, where the idea of ‘conspiracy theory’, according to liberals, prevails among intellectual paradigms that are closer to ‘closure’ or ‘mobilization’, in reference to ‘nationalists’ and Islamists’ rather than other orientations, which is a flawed debate, according to the study.
3- ‘Military Leadership and Strategic Vigilance Challenges’, by Dr. Bouhania Kaui (Algeria)
The historical experiences and lessons drawn from the past and the present confirm that success of defense capabilities and sovereign security forces in maneuvering and overcoming threats depends on strategic vigilance factors and conditions of their activation, and intelligence mixed with systematic military art. Even an army well aware of its responsibilities as a professional regular army must also benefit from security vigilance.
4- ‘Deal of the Century: An Analytical Study of Arab Attitudes’, by Dr. Mohamed Abu Saada (Palestine)
Since September 2017, the international community has been waiting for Trump’s disclosure of the so-called “deal of the century”, although the proposals and contents that have been published and leaked so far can be described as loose and not realistic; and cannot be applied on the ground – as the study suggests – due to two factors:
First: the initial leaks on the current version of the deal, which is almost certainly not yet mature, are still in the stage of discussions in order to produce a final formula acceptable to the parties concerned.
Second: This factor is related to the timing of the deal: The US administration still suffers from internal problems. In addition, it is preoccupied with important external files such as the dispute with Iran. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his wife are facing corruption charges. Finally, the Gaza Strip, which has suffered for 11 years from siege, remains strong, as confirmed by the return marches. However, this does not mean that the ‘deal of the century’ has disappeared or failed; but the United States and some regional countries seem to be preparing the regional atmosphere for accepting a new or partial vision aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause, the study concludes.
The study reviews the stances of major Arab countries towards the ‘deal of the century’, including Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait.
5- ‘Self, State and People in the Perceptions of the Egyptian Army after 2011’, by Mohamed Hassan (Egypt)
The study analyzes audio and video data issued by the army, whether by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) or the army’s General Command, speeches of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as representing in one way or another one of the most important makers of the military discourse in Egypt over the past years, and a number of songs that glorify the army’s actions, widely believed that to be produced and promoted by the army. The study period starts from the first army statement on February 10, 2011, until its first statement on Operation Sinai 2018 on February 9, 2011.
6- ‘The Platforms of Turkish Parties 2018’, by Dr. Said Elhaj (Palestine)
The study addresses the platforms of Turkish parties, focusing on the ruling Justice and Development Party and the Republican People’s Party, the major opposition party, as examples.
Although the paper does not address the platforms of the AKP and CHP – 2018 in detail, it presents examples that explain them as much as possible without diving into details, focusing on the most important items or those that include pledges with specific dates. The paper provides a comparative assessment of the broad outlines of the two platforms.
7- ‘Methodological Errors in the Use of International Relations Theories’, by Dr. Houssine Belkhairat (Algeria)
The optimal use of theories of international relations in research is not only related to assimilating their content as theoretical frameworks, but by avoiding falling into methodological problems, and adopting systematic rooting of the use of international relations theories in scientific research, especially those related to analyzing the international reality.
The study addresses the mistakes that are committed when using ‘theories of international relations’ in scientific research, mistakes that significantly reduce the methodological value of that use, and therefore reflect negatively on the results of the research presented.
8- ‘Party Pluralism and Patterns of Democratic Transformation’, by Abuzaid Adel al-Qadi (Egypt)
Although political parties have faced many difficulties and obstacles in foundation, development, and growing role at different levels in the third world (including the Arab world) societies, however, they have become important elements that must be taken into consideration to understand the mechanism of political systems in the third world countries and understand their political performance.
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